The product is compliance, not methanol.
Our customers are not buying a fuel. They are buying the avoidance of a regulatory penalty – and that penalty sets the price ceiling.
The choice
Option A
Pay the penalty
Non-compliance is charged per tonne of methanol-equivalent shortfall. No asset, no hedge, recurring every year.
Option B
Buy the molecule
RFNBO-certified e-methanol under long-term offtake. Fixed cost, drop-in, counts against the obligation.
€1,200 Per tonne of methanol. The penalty-equivalent rate, and the ceiling on what a compliant buyer will rationally pay.
The cliff
A sub-target that quadruples demand in a single year.
The FuelEU RFNBO sub-target reaches 2% of onboard energy in 2034. Global e-methanol supply past final investment decision does not move with it.
RFNBO sub-target of onboard energy, 2034
RegulationStep-up in demand from 2033 to 2034
RegulationEU maritime e-methanol demand at the cliff, mid case
Greenberg estimateGlobal e-methanol past FID, all end uses
Greenberg estimateModelled bottom-up from the FuelEU energy base – EU MRV fuel in scope, 2% RFNBO sub-target, 55% e-methanol capture. The supply figure is global, after FID, across all end uses.
Eligibility
The eligibility filter comes first
Bio-methanol, bio-LNG and biodiesel cannot satisfy an RFNBO obligation. They are out by definition, regardless of price. That removes the cheapest alternatives on legal grounds rather than cost grounds – and it means the relevant competition is other RFNBO producers, a set that currently barely exists.
Why our position is structurally sound
Off-grid solar gives additionality by construction, with no grid-matching exposure. CO₂ comes from Direct Air Capture rather than a contested biogenic source – SAF, e-LNG and food-grade buyers are already bidding for biomass and biogenic carbon. Air and sunlight are not contested inputs.
Certifications
RFNBO and ISCC certified
Our e-methanol is certified under RFNBO (Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin) and ISCC (International Sustainability and Carbon Certification), ensuring compliance with the highest regulatory standards.
Price volatility Fossil methanol moved between €535 and €915 per tonne within 2026 alone. A long-term RFNBO offtake converts an uncertain annual penalty exposure into a fixed, hedged input cost.